The Arab middle class: Key to successful transition (by Abdallah Al Dardari and Naren Prasad)

Recent newspapers, magazines and TV news channels have dealt with the a growing group of citizens such as “the Rise of Asia’s Middle Class”, “the new middle classes rise up”, “Lebanese middle class diminishing in size” or certain have asked “Why did the Egyptian Middle Class March to Tahrir Square”. This blog focuses on the middle class, in part because of their involvement in the social uprisings in the Arab region. These groups are increasingly economically and politically marginalized. The second reason we focus on the middle class is their economic and political importance. The middle class is an important category of interest not only because they are the main drivers of economic activity and, thus, vital to the economic development of any country, but also because they are an interest group which influences political and social life. In comparison to other groups, members of the middle class typically constitute a broader stratum of the population, including a wide range of professional, political, economic and social profiles. Often politicians count on the middle class as their main constituent and draw on them for substantial support for policy positions.

 Who are the middle class? How to define and measure them? There is no agreement as how to measure the middle class. They range from wealthy urban professionals to village clerks and school teachers who have different values. In a recent paper, Abu-Ismail and Sarangi (2013), have proposed a methodology to measure the middle class. Yet another paper unlocks the intricate relationship between the State and the middle class which is generally mediated by social policies (Prasad 2014 forthcoming). The recently released Arab MDG Report (2013) showed that the Arab countries are at a crossroad of policy choices for an inclusive and sustainable development. Their success in political transition and economic development will mostly depend on the role of middle class in the region since they are instrumental in mobilizing support, in redefining the existing development framework and governance model and in renegotiating a new social contract in the region. In this respect, studying the middle class in the Arab region is imperative for understanding and providing guidance to a development framework in the transition process.

 

To respond to this challenge, ESCWA is trying to make sense of how the middle class could be assisted so that there is inclusive growth in the region. It is trying to crack the nuts and bolts of this important group: their importance in light of current developments in the region, their participation in the economic development, their roles in promoting economic development for poverty reduction, the impact of policy changes on them, policies that support them and policies that should be avoided. All these work will culminate into an ESCWA publication on the Arab middle class, which will attempt to answer two major questions: who are the Arab middle class and what has happened to them? (to be published in September 2014). More importantly, the report will argue that the path to regional stability and inclusive development will depend on what happens to the Arab middle class.